412 days later, Karnataka and its political scenario, is where it started on May 23rd, 2018, the day JD(S) leader Kumaraswamy was sworn into power- square one.

The Congress-JD(S) government is yet again battling for its existence. This time, the drama began on July 6th, when 13 MLAs from both the parties resigned from the legislative assembly, this includes former Home Minister Ramalinga Reddy & H Vishwanath.

They tendered their resignation to the speaker & soon 10 of these leaders took a private chartered plane to Mumbai. They were later seen at Sofitel Hotel.

But back home in Bangalore, another political drama was brewing. Desperate Congress-JDS alliance leaders were left stunned. Kumaraswamy who was out of India came rushing back.

Congress in fact went a step ahead & activated ‘Kamraj plan’- i.e their ministers gave up their berths for an ulterior motive- power at the state. All ministers from both Congress & JD (S) have resigned to accommodate 13 rebels.

Why is Karnataka so important?

For Congress, Karnataka is the second major state it is in power after Punjab and the stakes could not have been higher.

For BJP, which is not in power in any southern state, Karnataka presents an opportunity to become a gateway to the South.

For JD(S), which has slipped into political oblivion, this alliance is their last bet at remaining relevant politically

Can the numbers align?

*Scenario in Karnataka’s lower house before resignation drama

Total seats- 225

Nominated member-1

Magic Number- 113

Congress+JD(S)+BSP+KJPJ+Independent: 118

BJP: 105


*Scenario if 13 resignations are accepted

Total seats- 212

Nominated member-1

Magic Number- 106

Congress+ JD(S)+BSP+ KJPJ: 104

BJP+ Independent: 107


For the BJP this could be their best chance to pull off a massive political coup. But will the party pull this off or will the Congress steal their thunder?

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